One in every of function races on the third of the Cheltenham Pageant (Thurs 17th March) is the Paddy Energy Stayers’ Hurdle as a few of the finest 3m hurdlers lock horns.
Twelve months in the past we noticed a barely shocking winner in Flooring Porter win the race at odds of 12/1 below a cracking front-running trip from jockey Danny Mullins.
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This 7 year-old has progressed properly once more throughout this season and has held his personal on the head of the Stayers’ Hurdle betting market.
He’ll be seeking to grow to be the primary ‘back-to-back’ winner of the Paddy Energy Stayers’ Hurdle because the mighty Massive Buck’s, who received this prize 4 instances between 2009 and 20212.
Like most races on the 2022 Cheltenham Pageant, there are various key developments and stats to take into every contest.
So, does the Stayers’ Hurdle favorite – Flooring Porter – tick the principle Stayers’ Hurdle developments?
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Did You Know? 13 of the final 17 Stayers’ Hurdle winners received final day trip, whereas 19 of the final 22 winners completed 1st or 2nd in ALL their hurdles begins that season.
Key Stayers’ Hurdle Developments
- 13 of the final 17 received final day trip
- 29 of the final 32 winners had been aged between 6-8 years-old
- 17 of the final 21 winners got here from the highest 4 within the betting
- 19 of the final 22 winners completed 1st or 2nd in ALL their hurdles runs that season
- 3 of the final 4 winners ran within the Albert Bartlett the earlier season
- 13 of the final 19 winners had raced that calendar 12 months
Stayers’ Hurdle Developments – Primary Runners (primarily based on the six essential developments above)
FLOORING PORTER ❌✅✅❌❌❌ Flooring Porter @ 3/1 BetUK
KLASSICAL DREAM ❌✅✅❌❌✅ Klassical Dream @ 4/1 BetUK
THYME HILL ❌✅✅❌❌❌ Thyme Hill @ 4/1 BetUK
CHAMP ❌❌✅✅❌✅ Champ @ 5/1 BetUK
PAISLEY PARK ✅❌❌❌❌✅ Paisley Park @ 7/1 BetUK
ROYAL KAHALA ✅✅❌✅❌✅ Royal Kahala @ 8/1 BetUK
Observe: Odds are topic to vary
A Blended Bag Of Developments For Flooring Porter
Final 12 months’s winner – Flooring Porter – will likely be hoping to observe within the hoof prints of Massive Bucks and efficiently defend his title, however the developments will give these seeking to take him on loads to cling to.
Sure, this Gavin Cromwell-trained 7 year-old ticks a number of bins, together with age and being within the high 4 within the betting and barring a fall at Navan in November would have completed within the high two in all his races this time period.
Nevertheless, a large 13 of the final 17 (76%) of current winners received their most up-to-date race and he now heads right here having not received in his final three.
He was overwhelmed by Klassical Dream, who might line-up right here too, at Leopardstown again in December so does additionally have to bounce again from that defeat.
On a plus, he’s taken the identical route as final 12 months – having round 3 months off earlier than coming to the Pageant and being a front-runner will likely be attempting to make it laborious for the others to move him once more. He’s definitely a number one contender, however the developments say he may simply be value taking over.
Again FLOORING PORTER @ 3/1 with BetUK
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Previous Champ Paisley Park Wanting To Emulate Inglis Drever
In 2019 we noticed the Emma Lavelle runner – Paisley Park @ 7/1 with BetUK – win this race at 11/8 and reward favorite backers – many thought he’d mop up this prize for the following few years after that.
Nevertheless, he misplaced his approach and will solely handle seventh in 2020 and third in 2021 – 5 lengths behind Flooring Porter.
However regardless of fluffing the beginning final time received the Cleeve Hurdle right here at Cheltenham to bounce again to successful methods and put himself again within the image for the Stayers’ Hurdle.
If in a position to wrestle again his title, he’ll grow to be the primary horse since Inglis Drever to regain the Stayers’ Hurdle crown – Drever received the thrice between 2005 and 2008.
A Developments Have a look at The Different Primary Stayers’ Hurdle Runners
Thyme Hill @ 4/1 with BetUK – Doesn’t have a nasty Pageant report – working third within the 2019 Champion Bumper and fourth within the 2020 Albert Bartlett. Since then has been touted as a number one contender for this race however is lastly having his first attempt in it.
Our essential developments don’t bode properly for his likelihood, with solely age (8) and being within the high 4 within the betting pluses, but it surely’s additionally laborious to disregard his course kind at Cheltenham.
This Philip Hobbs runner has raced right here 4 instances and is but to complete out of the primary 4 2-3-1-4. A current second, behind Champ, within the Lengthy Stroll Hurdle, was a good effort, whereas the absence from the observe (final ran 18th Dec) isn’t a fear as he’s a horse that’s gone very properly recent previously.
Champ @ 5/1 with BetUK – Many Pageant followers will bear in mind his fast-finishing win within the 2020 RSA Chase to collar the long run Gold Cup winner – Minella Indo.
He didn’t fairly progress over fences as many thought after that however a return to hurdles has seen a spark of life return to this 10 year-old.
This Nicky Henderson runner landed the Lengthy Stroll Hurdle in December however did run flat final time within the Cleeve Hurdle when overwhelmed at odds on (2nd behind Paisley Park).
The developments recommend he’s acquired a say nonetheless although, with being within the high 4 within the betting (might change), positioned 1st or 2nd in his hurdles races this season and racing this calendar 12 months all pluses.
Klassical Dream @ 4/1 with BetUK– The Willie Mullins yard have solely received this race twice previously, however these two wins have been within the final 5 years.
This 8 year-old, who shot to fame when successful the 2019 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, has had his points lately – having an enormous time away from the observe and lacking the entire of 2000.
However he’s returned this season higher than ever with wins at Punchestown and Leopardstown however did get overwhelmed at 1/3 final time at Gowran Park – with Royal Kahala successful that race.
Royal Kahala @ 8/1 with BetUK – If lining up right here seems to have a dwell likelihood. She’s a mare so will get a helpful 7lb allowance too and at simply 7 years-old ought to have extra to return.
She grew to become extra of a family title after overwhelmed Klassical Dream into fourth at Gowran Park on the finish of January, however racegoers may bear in mind she was additionally despatched off favorite for the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle right here final season (9th).
She might solely handle 9th in that Pageant race final season so might want to present she will act on the observe, however does definitely look a a lot stronger and wiser horse now. That run on the Pageant final season was solely her fourth over the sticks.
The developments recommend she’s acquired an enormous say too – she ticks 4 of our six essential stats, together with age, successful final day trip, having raced this 12 months and ending within the first two in all her hurdles races (3) this season.
Stayers’ Hurdle Developments – The Pluses
- 13 of the final 17 received final day trip
- 7 of the final 8 winners had been second season hurdlers
- 29 of the final 32 winners aged between 6-8 years-old
- 17 of the final 21 winners got here from the highest 4 within the betting
- 8 of the final 20 had been French Bred
- Respect the Cleeve Hurdle and Lengthy Stroll Hurdle kind
- 8 of the final 15 ran within the Cleeve Hurdle
- 19 of the final 22 winners completed 1st or 2nd in all their hurdling runs that season
- 13 of the final 17 winners began 10/1 or much less within the betting
- Respect previous winners of the race
- 16 of the final 25 winners had received 7 or much less instances over hurdles
- 3 of the final 4 winners ran within the Albert Bartlett the earlier season
Stayers Hurdle Developments – The Negatives
- Keep away from horses that didn’t end both 1st or 2nd final day trip
- A 5 year-old is but to win the race
- Horses which have misplaced beforehand within the race don’t fare properly
- Coach Willie Mullins has solely received the race twice
- Keep away from entrance runners
- The Irish are have received the race simply 4 instances since 1995
- Keep away from horses that had been overwhelmed within the race earlier than
- Earlier Albert Bartlett winners have an total poor report (1 from 16), however horses that ran within the race have received the final 3
- Horses carrying headgear are 0 from 71
- Horses aged 10 or older have all been overwhelmed since 1986 (0 from 59)
Latest Cheltenham Pageant Stayers’ Hurdle Winners
2021 – FLOORING PORTER (12/1)
2020 – LISNAGAR OSCAR (50/1)
2019 – PAISLEY PARK (11/8 fav)
2018 – PENHILL (12/1)
2017 – NICHOLS CANYON (10/1)
2016 – THISTLECRACK (Evs)
2015 – COLE HARDEN (14/1)
2014 – MORE OF THAT (15/2)
2013 – SOLWHIT (17/2)
2012 – BIG BUCK’S (5/6 fav)
2011 – BIG BUCK’S (10/11 fav)
2010 – BIG BUCK’S (5/6 fav)
2009 – BIG BUCK’S (6/1)
2008 – INGLIS DREVER (11/8 fav)
2007 – INGLIS DREVER (5/1)
2006 – MY WAY de SOLZEN (8/1)
2005 – INGLIS DREVER (5/1)
2004 – IRIS’S GIFT (9/2)
2003 – BARACOUDA (9/4 fav)
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